Trump Team Prepares For Netanyahu Loss

The inner circle of US President Donald Trump is actively positioning itself to collaborate with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political rivals should the incumbent lose power in Israel's imminent election. This shift in strategy signals a pragmatic pivot by the White House, which is preparing for a scenario where the long time ally of the administration steps down.

The changing dynamics are reflected in the latest polling data from Maariv. The opposition bloc has widened its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu's coalition has dropped to 48. The margin is narrow but significant as the October 27 vote approaches. If the results are inconclusive, 60% of respondents expressed a preference for a unity government. Only 23% favored a second election, while 17% remained undecided.

In a direct contest for the premiership, Benny Gantz leads Netanyahu with 49% support compared to 41% for the current Prime Minister. Among those who support a unity government, 33% want a candidate from the opposition to lead it. Only 19% prefer Netanyahu, and 8% support a unity cabinet regardless of the leader. These numbers suggest a strong appetite for cooperation among the Israeli electorate if the current government falls.

Within the Trump administration, sentiment is not uniformly in favor of the Prime Minister. One adviser described the situation bluntly, stating that Netanyahu is the devil Trump knows. Many of the president's closest advisers opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu. They believed the US leader should stay out of the Israeli election entirely to preserve neutrality and influence.

Vice President JD Vance has adopted a cautious stance on the race. He declined to explicitly back the Prime Minister when asked about the election this week. Vance told reporters, I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. He added that the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters. This measured approach reflects the broader strategic calculations within the White House.

Strains over specific policy issues have also emerged. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack raised concerns about the Netanyahu government's approach to Syria. After Israeli strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province, Barrack denounced the attack as an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. This criticism highlights a disconnect between the military actions of the Israeli government and the diplomatic goals of the US ambassador.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a better relationship with the Prime Minister. However, they believe Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government. The State Department has also expressed frustration with what they view as Netanyahu's failure to do more to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. These grievances complicate the administration's stance as it weighs its options for the post election era.

The stakes are high for both Jerusalem and Washington. A change in government in Israel could reshape the regional alliance structure. The Trump team is now looking beyond the current incumbent to secure a stable partner for future negotiations. As the election date nears, the focus is shifting from how to support Netanyahu to how to manage a potential transition of power in the region.

This preparation for a potential opposition government underscores the fluid nature of the US Israel relationship. It is no longer a fixed alignment with one party but a dynamic engagement with whoever holds power. The coming days will test the resilience of this alliance as Israel heads to the polls with a tighter race than expected.