Citrinowicz predicts third U.S. Iran war phase targets Gulf energy after Nov. 3 vote

A third round of war between the United States and Iran is likely to begin after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, according to Danny Citrinowicz. The former Israeli intelligence official warned that this phase of the conflict could be the most destructive yet. He predicts the fighting will target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea communications lines.

Citrinowicz spent more than 20 years as an intelligence officer in the Israeli military. He now works with the Institute for National Security Studies. In an interview with CBC News, he stated that a renewed war appears "almost inevitable." He argued that President Donald Trump faces only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. This follows his earlier assessment that attacking Iran would not lead to regime change but would instead widen the regional conflict.

The U.S. and Israel have fought two separate wars against Iran over the past 18 months. The first conflict started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites. It lasted 12 days and ended in a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a major U.S. military buildup. Israel led that second phase by striking senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the third round to focus on economic and communication targets. He identified Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz as primary objectives. He also noted that Iran might use its large land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases. Kuwait and Bahrain were named as potential targets for these limited incursions. The goal, he said, would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

The conflict has remained active despite a pause in major strikes since the summer truce collapsed. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports. Iran has continued to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which has raised global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. He claimed Iran was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks are intended to pressure Washington.

Iran’s demands for a deal include relief from sanctions, reparations for previous damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks but have failed. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran’s leadership to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She warned that retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military "knockout punch" will force Iran to capitulate.

The human cost of the two existing war phases is high. Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Deaths have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The New York Times and other U.S. outlets report that the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken openly about "finishing the job" and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by allowing an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development that Netanyahu might inflate, leading to an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed," Sadjadpour said.