Voters Face a Binary Choice in Israel's Tightly Contested Election

For millions of Israelis heading to the polls this Tuesday, the decision is less about traditional left-right ideology and more about a single individual. The election has evolved into a direct referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. He first took the prime ministerial seat three decades ago and has occupied it for nineteen of those years. Current polling indicates that the two main camps, defined strictly as pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu, are running neck and neck. This setup means that ordinary citizens are effectively choosing between continuing the status quo or attempting a significant shift in leadership style.

The numbers backing the opposition are intriguing. Polls suggest that the group of Jewish parties opposed to Netanyahu may actually outpoll his own bloc. However, this group is projected to fall short of the absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. This leaves them with a difficult strategic question. They may need to rely on parties that represent Palestinian citizens of Israel. These citizens make up roughly one fifth of the total population. The outcome could hinge on just one of the 120 seats in the Knesset, a margin so thin that it often defies standard forecasting models.

The opposition is led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff for the Israel Defense Forces. He entered politics only four years ago and comes from a working-class family of Moroccan Jewish descent. His party, Yashar, translates to straight or direct. At a recent rally in Modi'in, supporters praised his plain speaking style. Noa Sadeh, a 56-year-old attendee, expressed fatigue with politicians who are skilled talkers. She wants a leader who focuses on doing the work. Eisenkot has proposed term limits for prime ministers, arguing that power tends to corrupt those who hold it.

Other key figures are shaping the political landscape. The opposition bloc includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both are natural figures of the nationalist right who once worked closely with Netanyahu before parting ways. On the far right, Yishai Fleisher of the Otzma Yehudit party is campaigning in Bet Shemesh. He argues that Netanyahu has drifted too far left and needs to be pulled back. His platform includes more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage voluntary Palestinian departure, and the death penalty.

Netanyahu has actively framed the final weeks of the campaign. His latest posters present a rhyming choice between the right and Palestine. They place opposition leaders alongside the heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens. This strategy has kept his opponents on the defensive in many media outlets, particularly Channel 14. One notable exception occurred this week when a speaker on that channel called Eisenkot a derogatory term. Eisenkot himself did not repeat the slur, which admirers saw as restraint while skeptics questioned his grasp of the political battlefield.

The tight race puzzles many observers given the context. The deadliest attack in Israel's history occurred on October 7, 2023, while Netanyahu was in charge. The subsequent war in Gaza resulted in the death of more than 70,000 Palestinians. Israel states that a third of these were Hamas combatants, but the group was not eradicated. The country's international standing has suffered, and the promised destruction of Iran's nuclear threat did not happen. Netanyahu also faces issues from his attempt to curb the supreme court and an ongoing corruption trial.

Despite these challenges, Netanyahu's durability rests on a loyal base built over thirty years. His allies promote the narrative that military and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark about the attack, a claim that lacks foundation. He is also viewed as a skilled coalition builder. Many expect him to outmaneuver rivals in the post-election negotiations. Opposition hopes also rest on energy from abroad, as many liberal expatriate Israelis are flying home to vote. This group is not captured in standard polls and could be decisive.

The stakes are high as the country marks the 31st anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin's assassination. Netanyahu stayed away from the state ceremony, sending a low-ranking minister instead. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, expressed optimism about a regional strategic process for security. While the word peace has been tainted for many, it has not disappeared. A widely shared video showed young Israelis singing a famous peace song at a festival. For some, this and the influx of returning voters suggest that the era of Netanyahu may be coming to an end.