Moon Missions: The Launch Count Question

A key figure regarding the number of rocket launches needed to reach the Moon is causing concern at NASA. The agency requires a specific count of Starship missions to fuel a lander in Earth orbit before it can travel to the lunar surface. This number is treated with extreme secrecy, similar to protecting sensitive codes. The goal is to determine how many flights are needed to transfer liquid oxygen and methane propellant to a spacecraft in low-Earth orbit. This fuel is necessary for the vehicle to travel to the Moon, land, and eventually return to lunar orbit.

The specific count has fluctuated over time. NASA has historically declined to provide a firm answer, citing uncertainty. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, said, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.” She later indicated the number was in the “high single digits to the low double digits.” This estimate suggested a depot Starship would be followed by approximately 11 tanker Starships to fully load it for a lunar voyage. Other officials have previously mentioned figures in the “high teens.”

Concerns have emerged regarding the feasibility of this process. Some NASA officials worry that the required number of launches may not decrease rapidly enough. This could prevent SpaceX’s Starship from playing a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade. The expectation has been that SpaceX would significantly improve Starship's lift capacity. Such an improvement would reduce the number of tanker flights needed to refuel the vehicle for a mission to the Moon.

A new estimate regarding the number of launches was discussed during a quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a panel member and former NASA astronaut, addressed the risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon. The discussion focused on the specific number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit. This fuel is necessary for the lander to fly to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.

NASA has not provided a definitive answer regarding the number of launches required to fuel a lunar lander. The agency has historically declined to provide a specific figure. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, said, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.” She later indicated the number was in the “high single digits to the low double digits.” This estimate suggested a depot Starship would be followed by approximately 11 tanker Starships to fully load it for a lunar voyage. Other officials have previously mentioned figures in the “high teens.”

Concerns have emerged regarding the feasibility of this process. Some NASA officials worry that the required number of launches may not decrease rapidly enough. This could prevent SpaceX’s Starship from playing a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade. The expectation has been that SpaceX would significantly improve Starship's lift capacity. Such an improvement would reduce the number of tanker flights needed to refuel the vehicle for a mission to the Moon.

A new estimate regarding the number of launches was discussed during a quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a panel member and former NASA astronaut, addressed the risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon. The discussion focused on the specific number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander in low-Earth orbit. This fuel is necessary for the lander to fly to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit.