Lebanese Shi'ites Favor State Control of Hezbollah Arms

A majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now support transferring Hezbollah's arsenal to the state, according to a new survey released in mid-October. This finding marks a notable departure from previous attitudes within the community that has historically served as the group's primary base of support.

The poll was conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon, which surveyed 800 individuals from the Shi'ite community. The results showed that 66.4 percent favored handing over the weapons, while 29.6 percent preferred the group retain its stockpile. Hezbollah has traditionally argued that its arms are vital for defending the country against Israel.

Further data from the same survey highlights a strong preference for state sovereignty in military matters. Approximately 71.1 percent of respondents believed that decisions regarding war and peace should be made exclusively by the Lebanese government. Only 5.9 percent thought Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the nation's future direction.

Trust in the national military remains high among these respondents. About 78.5 percent expressed confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1 percent identified the army as the best institution to ensure long-term security. By comparison, just 16.5 percent selected Hezbollah for that role, challenging the group's claim to be the primary guardian of Shi'ite security interests.

Opinions on Hezbollah's recent performance are divided. While 67.4 percent felt the group failed to meet its war goals or only partially succeeded, and 42.1 percent expressed disappointment or anger at its leadership, 59.5 percent still maintain some level of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that the group's social networks and status still provide strength, provided no other entity fills the resulting vacuum.

This recent data contrasts sharply with a May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. That earlier study found 87.5 percent of Shi'ites opposed disarming the group. The discrepancy raises questions about how wording or agenda may influence polling results. Researchers suggest that weakening Hezbollah will require a stronger army and financial backing from Western and Gulf states to replace the services the group provides. Locally, signs of caution are emerging. In Tyre, residents opposed opening a branch of a Hezbollah-linked bank in their building due to fears of strikes. Meanwhile, the group has announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and its southern suburbs, and up to $12,000 elsewhere, following heavy destruction in the south during a new war that began in March 2026.