Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Role in Israel's Next Government

Political assessments circulating in Israel indicate that Yitzhak Goldknopf’s three-seat faction, Agudat Yisrael, could decide who forms the next government. With voting scheduled for October 27, establishment figures are weighing the possibility that this small Haredi group will support a government led by the opposition. Such support would likely be exchanged for specific budgetary agreements, though it would not guarantee a stable majority without additional backing from Arab parties.

The idea of Agudat Yisrael cooperating with the change bloc has roots in earlier discussions. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring new options, including potential ties with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks emerged during a period of internal tension within United Torah Judaism. Friction between Agudat Yisrael and the rival Degel Hatorah focused on the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to Netanyahu’s bloc, adding uncertainty to the relationship.

Goldknopf faces a challenge in shifting his faction’s alignment. His voters are largely aligned with the Right. Assessments suggest that any visible move toward the change bloc could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This dynamic complicates the calculus for any opposition leader seeking to build a majority.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also central to these scenarios. If neither the current coalition nor the opposition secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, Bennett could potentially join a Netanyahu-led government. This outcome is considered remote, but some analysts view Bennett as the only change bloc leader positioned to make such a move due to his right-wing background. He would still need to shift his base of support, a difficult task given his current party composition.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential wildcard. He previously served as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is far from repeating that move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister.

The question of which leader might shift their political base could become a central issue in coalition negotiations. For now, these remain political assessments and scenarios rather than agreed-upon deals between the parties.