Israel Election: 54 to 50 Gap Leaves Coalition Math Unresolved

Israelis voted on October 27, but no single bloc secured a majority.

The Central Elections Committee's initial count placed Likud as the largest single party with 27 seats. Benjamin Netanyahu’s broader bloc is projected to win 54 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc is projected to win 50 seats. Neither group has the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

Exit polls published on election night showed how tight the race is. Kan 11 and Channel 13 projected a tie, with both blocs winning 51 seats. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu 52 seats and Eisenkot 49. Channel 15 offered the most favorable projection for the incumbent, giving Netanyahu’s bloc 55 seats against 49 for the opposition.

The path to power now depends on smaller parties. Ra’am and the Joint List, both Arab-led, could hold the balance of power. Exit polls suggest their combined support ranges from 16 to 19 seats. However, political barriers remain high. Netanyahu has called a coalition with Arab parties “shameful.” Leaders in the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out governing with them.

Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right parties Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. Religious Zionism is led by Bezalel Smotrich. Itamar Ben-Gvir leads Otzma Yehudit. Eisenkot’s bloc includes his Yashar party, the Together list linked to Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

Once results are certified, the president will mandate the Knesset member most likely to assemble a majority. That politician has 28 days to form a government. A possible extension of up to 14 days is available. If they fail, another lawmaker may receive a mandate. If no one succeeds, Israel may hold another election. This scenario mirrors the repeated elections held between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu remains the caretaker prime minister while negotiations unfold. He is the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, with 19 years in office across three stints. He is also standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies. Official results are due on November 4.