Twelve to fifteen Knesset seats will determine Israel's next government

The 120-seat Knesset will be decided by a margin of twelve to fifteen seats in the election scheduled for next week. Most polling data indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will lose its current majority. However, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. This leaves the decision to Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute approximately 20 percent of the population.

Forecasts suggest that Palestinian voters will elect between 12 and 15 representatives. These seats are expected to be divided between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties that includes Ta'al. The outcome of the election will hinge on which of the two main Jewish blocs can secure the support of these newly elected members.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than twenty years, stated that the party is determined to bring down the current government. He identified high turnout among the Arab community as a primary tool for achieving this objective. In a recent gathering in the town of Kfar Qasim, candidates met with residents over knafeh pastries and cardamom coffee to solicit votes.

The political landscape is complicated by historical reservations among Jewish opposition leaders, many of whom have ruled out coalitions with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned on the premise that any such alliance is politically toxic. Campaign posters have featured slogans such as "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Despite this, Tibi is unlikely to receive a junior ministerial post. Israel has only had two Palestinian ministers in its history: Raleb Majadele, who served for two years in the sport portfolio, and Issawi Frej, who handled regional coordination for just over a year.

Precedent suggests that promises to avoid Palestinian parties may be broken. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas entered a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself has previously opened coalition talks with Abbas. Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its position once results are announced. He noted that the decision is mathematical and is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

For Palestinian politicians, the path to coalition is also difficult. None of the opposition parties currently call for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described the choice as being between bad and worse, pitting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir against the opposition.

Fear is cited as a central motive for voting. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank have deepened concerns about another four years of far-right ministers. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, stated that the biggest motivation is fear. He said voters understand the danger if the current group comes back to rule again.

Turnout has been depressed in the past by distrust of a system seen as stacked against Palestinians. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. A ruling that widely applied different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens was widely criticized. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some Palestinians, such as Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they did not know about.