Fantasy NBA: Seven assumptions already fading

Tyrese Maxey has averaged 50 fantasy points per game over the first four contests of the new NBA season. This output defies early predictions that his role with the Philadelphia 76ers would shrink after the arrival of LeBron James and Jaylen Brown. The team currently holds a 3-1 record.

Eric Moody, a fantasy basketball expert, noted that the concern in Philadelphia was that too many stars would eat into Maxey's production. He observed that Maxey has not looked like the player making those sacrifices. Jaylen Brown is averaging 36.0 fantasy points per game, while Joel Embiid recorded a 28-point triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday.

Michael F. Florio added that fading these players in fantasy is an early season regret. Embiid and Brown are each averaging over 20 points per game, and LeBron James continues to contribute across the board. Maxey remains a top-five player in all formats despite the roster changes.

In Miami, the dynamics have shifted differently for Bam Adebayo. Eric Karabell pointed out that the arrival of Giannis Antetokoumpo has had an immediate statistical impact. Adebayo averaged 20.1 points and 10 rebounds per game last season, a trend he maintained for seven years. This season, he is averaging 11.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, and shooting 40% from the field. The Heat are currently winless.

Karabell questioned whether Adebayo is still a top-50 fantasy option. The fit between the two superstars looks awkward so far. While the numbers must improve, the extent of the improvement remains uncertain. The drop in production is visible in the box scores from the first week of play.

The Washington Wizards present another case of shifting roles. Andre Snellings stated that Alex Sarr is unlikely to approach his breakout campaign from last season if the team is fully healthy. Sarr averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks last year. He is currently averaging 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks this season.

Snellings attributed the decline to the presence of Anthony Davis, who occupies the same spaces at a higher volume. Sarr is taking 6.5 field goal attempts per game, down from 13.7 last year. The first overall pick, AJ Dybantsa, has not played yet. Once he joins the rotation, Sarr may receive even fewer opportunities.

Jabari Smith Jr. is showing signs of improvement for the Houston Rockets. Jim McCormick noted that Smith was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft class. His defense has been impressive and improving. His offensive game, which appeared stagnant in recent seasons, is showing growth with a real spike in three-point volume. This ascent appears sustainable for fantasy purposes.

The Orlando Magic have seen a clear change in center rotation. Wendell Carter Jr. is averaging 30.7 minutes per game, while Nikola Vucevic is averaging 8.0 minutes. Carter fits the career arc of the other Magic stars better than the 36-year-old Vucevic. Vucevic's role appears to be shrinking to a limited fantasy relevance.

Injuries have already tested fantasy managers in the first week. Steve Alexander listed Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Cason Wallace, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Kon Knueppel, Ivica Zubac, and Yves Missi as out with major injuries. Some of these players may not play again this season. Managers face tough drop and hold decisions with 24 weeks remaining in the schedule.