Lula flips 2.2 million vote gap to win fourth Brazil presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as Brazil's president on Sunday, defeating far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff vote. With 99% of ballots counted, Lula captured 51.75% of the total against Bolsonaro's 48.25%. The result ends a three-week period of uncertainty following a stunning first-round loss in early October.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, reversed a 2.2 million vote deficit from the first round to secure a 4.3 million vote lead. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, conceded defeat as the final tallies came in. No candidate who finished second in the first round has ever won the runoff since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s.

Turnout was the decisive factor in the shift. Abstention in the first round hit a record 21.08%, a rate that disproportionately affected Lula's base because many of his voters live far from polling stations. In the runoff, abstention dropped to 19.21%. Reginaldo Lopes, a senior Lula ally, told The Guardian he felt "incredible" as the victory was confirmed. He said the result sends a message to the world about the extreme right and that the country will now "reorganize the democratic forces."

Lula's political career spans four decades. He rose as a union leader in São Paulo's industrial suburbs in the late 1970s. Born into rural poverty, he worked in factories and lost presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998. He became Brazil's first working-class president in 2002. After serving two terms, he returned to power in 2022 by defeating Jair Bolsonaro, the father of this year's challenger.

The loss is a major setback for the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup and currently resides under house arrest in Brasília. He had hoped to be freed and appointed to a government role if his son won. Flávio Bolsonaro watched the count from Brasília, where the confirmation of Lula's win sparked anger among supporters.

The outcome also disrupts the political alignment of US President Donald Trump in Latin America. Trump had aimed to build a bloc of allied leaders in the region, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina. Lula's victory maintains a strong left-wing presence in the hemisphere's largest economy.

Supporters gathered in large numbers before the vote. More than one million people filled Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, while a larger crowd marched on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to the avenue to watch the count with red flags bearing Lula's face. Camilo Buarque, 35, said, "This is democracy." In São Paulo, Lucas Lopes, 32, called an alleged attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to sabotage public transport "another coup attempt," though the effort failed to disrupt the voting.