Welfare Spending To Hit £431bn By 2030, Chancellor Says Bill Must Fall

Welfare spending in the UK is forecast to climb from £334bn last year to £431bn by 2030, with about half going to pensioners and a quarter to sickness and disability benefits, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR's overall forecast spending figure has risen by £8bn since March. Chancellor John Healey said the government would cut that bill before the next election.

Healey spoke about the issue in interviews on BBC Radio 4's Today, Good Morning Britain and Sky News after delivering his budget on Wednesday. The budget included £100 off energy bills for up to 20m households in council tax bands A to D and the scrapping of standing charges on gas bills. Higher taxes on banks and landlords paid for the measures.

The chancellor said young people who decline offers of jobs or training would face a tougher approach. "We will expect, as we've done before, that (young people) take up the offers, take up the offers, and that's the way that we can bring welfare bills down in the long term," he told the Today programme. He said the benefits bill had to come down.

On Sky News, Healey said: "There will be a reduction in the benefits bill. We'll do that in a Labour way and we will do that because it is simply not good for Britain or progress to have a bigger and bigger benefits bill." He said the system was "unsustainable" and that changes would follow two reviews: the Milburn review of young people and work, and the Timms review of the disability benefit system.

Healey told Good Morning Britain that the model drew on the last Labour government's approach in the late 1990s, when youth unemployment in South Yorkshire reached one in five. "Tough on those who weren't prepared to take up the offer, but also real support and advice," he said, adding that he told young people then, "You have real potential."

The Resolution Foundation, an economic thinktank, called the budget "scattergun" and said it did little to address Britain's economic challenges. Ruth Curtice, the foundation's chief executive, said cost of living support was "spread far too thinly". The foundation said typical annual energy bills were expected to reach £1,750 after government support in 2026-27, against £1,685 during the 2022-23 price jump after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Healey said the single best thing for UK economic policy would be peace in the Middle East and Ukraine. Asked on Sky News about Donald Trump's actions, he said: "President Trump is probably the one man that can bring those parties together." He said Britain wanted to reopen the strait of Hormuz and see an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The budget deferred decisions on how defence spending at 3% of national income will be funded, and set out no changes to welfare. Both issues are expected at the spending review.