Texas Redistricting: Polls Show Democratic Edge in 15th District

The Rio Grande Valley in Texas once served as a political bellwether for Donald Trump's success among Hispanic voters. Now, with the midterm election scheduled for November 3, new polling data suggests that support has eroded. The district, which includes McAllen and other border cities, was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a theoretical 18-point advantage. Yet recent surveys show Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido holding a lead of five to six points.

This shift comes as the administration faces criticism over its border enforcement tactics. According to government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project, Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026. This is the largest share of any state. The region saw over two and a half million apprehensions in a single year under former President Joe Biden, a number that has since dropped to its lowest level in decades.

Trump secured approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas during the 2024 presidential race. That result was a record for a Republican presidential candidate. However, the area is experiencing economic pressure that some voters attribute to the current administration's methods. Local business owners report labor shortages and rising costs that are affecting their operations.

Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and head of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times. He plans to vote for a Democrat in November. Guerrero said voters were not informed about the extent of the administration's enforcement. He described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk significantly. That acquaintance now expects only four to six workers to show up on a given day.

Religious leaders in the area are also vocal about the changes. Father Roy Snipes, who has served the La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, preached on ICE actions to a congregation of about 30 people. The chapel is located about 200 yards from the Rio Grande. Snipes, known locally as the Cowboy Priest, said there is no good excuse to detain and deport neighbors who are good, poor folks.

Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has avoided using the national Democratic brand in his campaign. He focuses on the local economy instead. Pulido noted that the cost of living is the top concern for voters. He told supporters, This isn't New York, this isn't LA. His approach contrasts with the Republican strategy, which relies on highlighting the administration's success in reducing border crossings.

Republican officials acknowledge the challenges they face. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough race. He said most people accept deporting criminals, but the process becomes problematic when it involves productive, law-abiding residents. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, credited Trump with breaking through barriers but admitted that national political headwinds are real.

Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as purely a game of turnout. This view is shared by many local campaigners who believe voter engagement will determine the outcome. The polls are not guaranteed to be accurate, but if they hold, even a modest shift toward Democrats could have wide-reaching effects.

In Texas, a change in the 15th district could put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in the state in more than 30 years. The race remains competitive, with both parties focusing on turnout and economic messaging as the election approaches.