Hochul Opens 14-Point Lead Over Blakeman

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 14 points with less than a week remaining until Election Day.

The margin represents a widening gap from September, when Siena University polling showed a 50% to 41% advantage for the governor.

The new survey released Wednesday found Hochul at 54% and Blakeman at 40% among likely New York voters.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani gained ground in the same period. His favorability rating among New York City voters climbed to 69%, up from 60% last month. The share of city voters viewing him unfavorably dropped from 31% to 28%.

Statewide, the mayor's standing remained relatively stable. His favorability rating sat at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable, a slight shift from 46% to 44% in September.

Hochul also crossed a threshold in public perception. For the first time in her five years as governor, a majority of likely voters view her favorably. Her approval rating rose to 51%, up from 48% in September. Her job approval rating matched this figure at 51%.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted the shifting dynamics in the final days of the race.

“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Greenberg said.

Regional differences emerged in the data. Hochul held a 67% to 23% lead in New York City. In downstate suburbs, the race was nearly tied, with Hochul holding a 49% to 47% advantage. Upstate, she led 49% to 48%.

The governor also improved her standing among independents. She now leads Blakeman 51% to 40% in that group, reversing a 44% to 39% deficit for Blakeman recorded in September. This contrasts with a Quinnipiac University poll from Oct. 21, which showed Blakeman leading Hochul 51% to 44% among independents. Both polls surveyed smaller samples of independents, making those specific findings less precise than statewide results.

Voters also expressed confidence in the outcome. 68% of likely voters expected Hochul to win reelection. Only 23% expected Blakeman to prevail. Greenberg pointed out that even some Republicans doubted their candidate's chances. “Even Republicans are not strongly convinced their candidate will win, as 49% think Blakeman will win but 40% of GOP voters say that Hochul will win re-election,” Greenberg said.

Blakeman's personal numbers showed mixed results. His favorability rating rose to 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable from 35% and 34% in September. However, the share of voters who had not formed an opinion of him dropped sharply from 31% to 21%.