Heat waves kill 50,391 Europeans as warming drives majority of toll

Extreme heat waves killed 50,391 people across Europe in June, July, and August. Researchers estimate that human-caused climate change is responsible for nearly two-thirds of those fatalities. The new toll is 71% higher than the previous record set in 2022, when the same team counted 29,480 deaths.

The study modeled heat-related mortality by age group in 854 European cities. These urban areas contain approximately 40% of the continent's population. The findings are scheduled for publication in an upcoming issue of Nature Health. Italy, France, Spain, and Germany recorded the highest number of deaths.

Researchers calculated that 32,619 of the 50,391 deaths resulted directly from the additional heat caused by burning coal, oil, and gas. To isolate this figure, the team ran computer simulations of a world without climate change. They compared those simulated scenarios with the actual mortality data from this summer. The difference represents the specific impact of global warming.

Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and the lead author, noted that some cities experienced temperatures 12 C above normal. She stated that infrastructure in Western and Northern Europe is not built to handle these temperatures. Barnes added that Europe is the fastest-warming continent and is currently 2.5 C hotter than in pre-industrial times. This extra warming can push temperatures from uncomfortable to deadly.

Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a biostatistician at Imperial College London and co-author, reported that one-third of the deaths occurred between June 17 and July 1. During that period, temperatures ran 5.3 C above normal. More than half of the victims were 85 or older, but the heat also killed more than 800 people aged 20 to 44. The authors note that the figures are likely an underestimate because they exclude a deadly heat wave in May.

The research team relied on statistical modeling to account for age and each city's optimal temperature. They verified their results against government estimates, which mostly matched. For example, the model identified 2,700 excess deaths during the May and June heat waves in Britain, while UK health statistics reported 2,800. Several outside experts described the methods as state-of-the-art.

Dr. Howard Frumkin, former director of the National Center for Environmental Health in the U.S., said summers are getting hotter while attribution tools are becoming more accurate. Dr. Courtney Howard, president-elect of the Canadian Medical Association, called for investment in early-warning systems and equitable access to cooling. Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin-Madison urged society to address fossil fuel burning to stop the rising death toll.