Final poll: Janoo beats Scott in Vermont governor race

Amanda Janoo holds an eight point lead over Phil Scott in the final major poll released before Vermonters head to the polls.

The race has tightened over the past two months. A survey released on Sept. 24 showed Janoo ahead by six points at 49 percent to 43 percent. Other recent measurements have produced different results. A Vermont Public poll placed Scott ahead by 10 points at 42 percent to 32 percent. State Navigate’s latest data showed Scott leading by just three points at 49 percent to 46 percent.

The new numbers come from the UNH Survey Center, which polled just over 1,200 likely voters. In that sample, 51 percent of respondents said they have or will vote for Janoo. Forty three percent said they want Scott to win a record setting sixth term. Matt Dickinson, a political science professor at Middlebury College, noted that Janoo is a political newcomer facing an incumbent who has often been cited as the most popular governor in the country.

Dickinson said affordability and high taxes are the top concerns for voters in the state. These issues have been central to Scott’s platform for years. However, Dickinson suggested that Scott’s long tenure may be contributing to his opponent’s current lead. He stated that voters do not feel these problems have been solved and are pointing the finger at Scott. Dickinson noted that enough voters are considering an alternative for the top spot.

Despite the lead, Scott maintains high personal approval ratings in the same poll. Dickinson explained that people generally like Scott personally, but they are unhappy with the policies coming out of Montpelier. The professor added that the current poll skews younger than previous surveys. Younger voters are supporting Janoo at higher rates, which affects projections for the final outcome depending on turnout assumptions.

Scott has expressed skepticism about the UNH Survey Center in the past. He recently said the organization has produced a flawed poll his entire political life and that they never get it right. Dickinson acknowledged that UNH historically overestimated vote totals for Scott’s opponents in the last two gubernatorial races by large margins. He conceded that Scott has a reason to downplay these specific results, though he noted the center may have altered its methodology for this cycle.

Both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in the coming days. The goal is to bring out their respective bases and reach persuadable voters who have not yet cast a ballot. The election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.