Vucic Seeks Premiership Amid Scrutiny of Voter Data and Surveillance Claims

Aleksandar Vucic will seek the prime minister position in Serbia's parliamentary election on October 25, a bid that follows his resignation as president in late September. The move allows him to avoid a third consecutive term in the highest office while retaining political influence. His ruling coalition faces its first genuine threat from a student-led opposition movement that gained momentum after widespread protests.

The central dispute of the campaign centers on the integrity of the voter roll. An investigation by RFE/RL's Balkan Service identified approximately 500,000 registered voters who lack complete addresses in official records. Many of these files are missing specific street names or house numbers. The audit also found hundreds of voters listed at public facilities like social welfare centers, as well as residential addresses that could not logically hold so many people.

These data gaps echo concerns from the 2023 election, when international observers documented irregularities including the transport of voters from Bosnia-Hercegovina. The OSCE deployed 300 observers for the current contest, yet its interim report contradicted the Serbian government's claim that it had implemented all previous recommendations. RFE/RL investigators also noted an increase in eligible voters listed in Bosnia and Kosovo, regions that traditionally support Vucic's Progressive Party.

The political backdrop includes the approaching second anniversary of the Novi Sad railway station disaster. On November 1, 2024, a canopy collapsed, killing sixteen people. The incident sparked nationwide protests over corruption in a Chinese-led construction project. Police responded with force, including a March 15, 2025 incident where authorities allegedly used a sonic weapon against demonstrators. Vucic announced the early elections following another protest wave in June.

Current polling indicates the electorate is deeply divided. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia, described the upcoming vote as the first in over a decade with an uncertain outcome. The student opposition lacks formal leaders, and its candidate list consists largely of nonpartisan figures, including university professors. Cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic heads the list, though the movement clarified that his position does not guarantee the premiership if they win.

Allegations of illegal surveillance have further complicated the climate. A statement from the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of monitoring opposition members and attempts to undermine observation missions. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software were used in 2026. The software is illegal in Serbia. Government officials have denied targeting political rivals, while four employees of Serbia-funded institutions in Kosovo told RFE/RL they faced pressure to vote for the ruling party.

International dynamics play a role in the race. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed personal support for Vucic. Republican Congressman Joe Wilson stated that Russia is deploying resources to monitor and disrupt Serbian citizens. The European Parliament has raised concerns about Russian influence operations. Vucic pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Serbia has not opened a new EU accession chapter since late 2021, a stall attributed to democratic backsliding and unresolved relations with Kosovo.